Racing’s leadership in chaos but dramatic exits will be limited to track at Cheltenham

In the long-forgotten time, about 30 years or so ago, when the Cheltenham festival was a three-day get-together for country types, no one gave much thought to attendance figures, the price of beer or maximising the customer experience. It was a coming together of the National Hunt clans, much anticipated and hugely enjoyed but not, in the grand scheme, an event with a story to tell about the overall health of the sport.

But not any more. The state of the Cheltenham festival is a key indicator of the state of the racing nation as a whole, and perhaps more so than ever this year, as the sport heads to Gloucestershire rudderless after Lord Allen, who took over as chair of the British Horseracing Authority just six months ago, turned out to be a temporary hire. There is even talk of schism in the dysfunctional racing family, as the showpiece tracks, Cheltenham included, demand change “to ensure that significant views from key racecourses can influence outcomes”.

This is a sport in need of a reason to look up and ahead, not always backwards and down. And where better to find that reassurance than the meeting that, in terms of betting turnover, now stages a majority of the top 40 races each year?

As recently as 2013, there were 15 festival races in the annual top 40. By 2022, all 28 races were in the top 35. Even the Festival Hunter Chase, with amateur riders aboard obscure point-to-pointers, now makes the list, as punters recycle winnings from the preceding Gold Cup.

The Derby, for many years the second-most popular race annually after the Grand National, did not even make the top 10 last year. The Martin Pipe Novice Handicap Hurdle, however, the last race on Gold Cup day, came in at No 5, as backers grabbed a final chance to bet at the festival before the 361-day wait for Tuesday’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.

But while these four frantic days in March remain as popular as ever with off-course punters, the festival’s failure to get bodies through the gates has been a growing concern over the past three seasons. There was a record crowd of 280,627 for the first post-Covid festival in 2022. Since then, the overall attendance has dropped year-on-year, and last year’s total of 218,839 was down by 4.9% on 2024, and no less than 22% below the 2022 peak. The picture is even more depressing on the first three days, which have lost a quarter of their live audience in three years.

It seems, too, that racegoers have fallen out of love with the festival, and not with Cheltenham itself. Attendances at the track’s meetings earlier in the season have been at record levels, including a turnout of 44,151 for the New Year’s Day fixture, which exceeded the 41,949 total for the Wednesday of last year’s festival.

These are not like-for-like swaps, however. An extra racegoer elsewhere does not make up for one lost in March. Festival racegoers generate more turnover and profit per head, and many times more in the case of the corporate clients in hospitality boxes and chalets.

Guy Lavender, Cheltenham’s chief executive since January 2025, has already introduced a series of measures to improve the customer experience at the track, including an end to the longstanding ban on taking alcohol on to the lawns in front of the stands, the introduction of a covered food court in the tented village and (slightly) cheaper beer. The car parks have been upgraded, too, and a scheme to reduce the cost of accommodation locally is also under way.

Harry Redknapp’s horse, The Jukebox Man, could provide one of the stories of the Cheltenham festival. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

Lavender, who arrived from a similar role with Marylebone Cricket Club, had been in situ for just three months last year, but the 2026 festival is his first with a full 12-month run-up. As such, the daily attendance figures will be keenly scrutinised for hints that the word has started to spread among the festival’s lost fans, and crowd numbers could be set for a much-needed revival. The early signs, it seems, are promising.

The week’s other key indicator, meanwhile, will be out on the track, where Irish-trained runners have been cleaning up for a decade. A 14-14 draw in 2019 is as close as the home team have come to an outright victory in the Prestbury Cup since 2015, and the overall score over the last decade is now 175-101 in Ireland’s favour, as one layer of greenwash has been slapped upon another.

Again, while no one is expecting a return to the mid-80s days when the Irish were happy with a couple of winners, the mood going into the festival is unusually upbeat. Nerves will be spared on the opening day now that Constitution Hill has been sent on to the Flat, and Britain still has the Champion Hurdle favourite, in Dan Skelton’s The New Lion.

Skelton has seen his very realistic hopes of a first-ever National Hunt trainers’ title start turning to dust at this meeting in each of the past two years. This, though, could be the week when he exacts some revenge. In addition to The New Lion, he has the second favourite for Wednesday’s Champion Chase in L’Eau Du Sud and live runners at single-figure odds in several more Grade Ones.

It is, of course, impossible to approach the festival with anything but a mood of childlike anticipation and optimism. Hopes were high for a British revival 12 months ago after a 4-3 win on the opening day, and it finished 20-8 to the Irish.

But there is a definite sense of greater depth to this year’s home side, with the familiar team leaders – Skelton, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls – joined by live runners from smaller operations, too. That is reflected in the fact that there could be as few as one or two odds-on shots over the week, after two years with seven apiece. And whatever else happens over the first three days, Harry Redknapp’s King George winner, The Jukebox Man, could serve up one of the best festival stories for decades in Friday’s Gold Cup.

Racing’s leadership may be in chaos, but at Cheltenham, the stage is set and the horses are fit and ready. For the next four days at least, dramatic exits will be confined to the track.