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Which is the sharper motivator, the avoidance of fresh humiliation or the attainment of new heights? Cardiff could be the place this weekend for any students of psychology more interested in such nuances than anything so obvious as an actual attempt to win the title.
Suffice to say, neither Wales nor Italy can win the Six Nations this weekend, nor exert any influence on its outcome. It is mathematically possible for Wales to knock England into last place for the first time in the extended championship’s history, but students of mathematics needn’t bother. For the record, Wales would need to win with a bonus point and, in concert with France, who play England, cover their current deficit of 100 in points difference.
Italy have more chance of finishing in the top three for the first time, but it remains a long shot. They would have to win with a bonus point to have a chance of overhauling Ireland in third, while covering a deficit of 40 in points difference. If Ireland pick up so much as a bonus point against Scotland in Dublin in the first match of the day, that dream will be over.
Either way, Italy are aiming to secure three wins in a single championship for the first time. And, while we are talking firsts, they are also the bookies’ favourites for an away match. Progress indeed.
While three wins would be new territory for Italy, it is not quite a new continent. Two years ago, they managed two wins and a draw – and still finished fifth, courtesy of Scotland’s four bonus points that year.
Italy’s marked improvement has changed the dynamic of the Six Nations for everyone – and none more so than for their hosts, Wales. We hardly need to restate that Wales stand on the brink of a third consecutive championship without a win. Their last Six Nations win was on 11 March 2023, against Italy in Rome, one of only two since they won the title five years ago.
But Steve Tandy has perceived an uptick in performance since his team were staring down the barrel in the second half against a France side who were running riot in round two, much as England had been (remember that?) in round one. Small consolation when you are 54-7 down, but Wales won the last 15 minutes against France 5-0. Since then, they coulda-shoulda beaten Scotland in round three and were plenty competitive in Dublin last weekend.
This week Tandy has named an unchanged team, with Blair Murray’s inclusion on the bench the only change to the squad. And he has doubled down, as all coaches in a rut must, on the importance of performance over result on Saturday. “I want both,” he then acknowledged, “but we have to focus on the performance.”
They cannot realistically avoid the wooden spoon for a third year running, but there is enough life in the team to render their desolate run perplexing. Louis Rees-Zammit, Tomos Williams, Aaron Wainwright, Dewi Lake, Rhys Carré – oh, Rhys Carré – ought to represent enough talent for something more than zero wins in three years.
Wales’s biggest problem is how good everyone else has become, best exemplified by Italy. The Azzurri make three changes from the side that beat England for the first time in Rome last weekend. Alas, the mighty Simone Ferrari misses out through injury and is replaced at tighthead by Muhamed Hasa, while the experienced Federico Ruzza comes in for Andrea Zambonin, also injured. Alessandro Fusco completes the changes, replacing Alessandro Garbisi at scrum-half.
Wedged in between two matches of greater moment this may be, but the stakes for Wales could hardly be higher. Whether such desperation trumps the motivation of the visiting Italians to reach ever higher will make for its own special drama.
