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12 hours ago
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The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System is …
A welcome introduction. Recent years have seen a tactical flattening of the game with the introduction of the universal DH, the banning of the shift and the three-batter minimum rule, but this adds an interesting wrinkle to game management. The league table of catchers’ challenge percentages will be fascinating. AE
The robo-ump makes me sick, but I also didn’t love the pitch clock and I could never go back to 3hr 45min games. In the end I think we’ll all get used it fairly quickly. Phillies left-hander Jesús Luzardo claimed he wouldn’t use it all year and didn’t make it one inning before he reversed course. BAG
Count me among the naysayers. There’s something pure about a pitcher figuring out the nuances of a particular ump’s strike zone. And ABS minimizes an important aspect of a catcher’s repertoire: framing. MJ
Umps have gone from God to gotcha thanks to instant replay and now, ABS. It’s been a slow, painful demise for the men in blue and now umps will be emasculated even more acutely. That said, strike zones will become more consistent, and once the umps just give up and learn what the computer likes, we’ll probably see fewer challenges and fewer embarrassing moments. DL
Shohei Ohtani is the greatest player since …
Eddy Merckx? Michael Phelps? Jan Zelezny? Leonidas of Rhodes? Secretariat? At this point you have to look beyond baseball and start making comparisons with other sports’ greatest ever competitors. What he is doing should be impossible. AE
He’s the greatest to ever do it, full stop. Ruth never faced 100mph sliders. Bonds never took the mound. Ohtani’s doing both at historic levels in the analytics age. BAG
There really is no comp for the value and domination Ohtani has brought to the game. No offense to The Babe, but he wasn’t exactly hitting off flamethrowers or throwing the ball 100mph like Ohtani. MJ
Himself! Ruth made 36 starts over two years before his hitting prowess forced him off the mound, while Ohtani has made nearly 90 starts over the past four seasons in which he has hit full-time. You can’t take your eyes off him. DL
What I’m most looking forward to …
Last year was supposed to be the year the Orioles’ young stars properly broke through. Instead, it was a disaster – players couldn’t find a rhythm, injuries piled up and the rest of the American League East was the strongest it had been in years. But the young core is back, Pete Alonso has joined, there’s a new manager, and the new owners seem to be more ambitious than the Angelos family was. AE
Seeing whether October bends to LA once more or finally breaks them. We haven’t seen this kind of superteam-v-the field tension since the fin-de-siècle Yankees. The Dodgers feel like a team all but nailed-on for a coronation, which usually means something weird is coming. The fun will be finding out which contender, if any, is bold enough to disrupt it. BAG
Exciting prospects. From elite infielders Konnor Griffin (Pirates), Jesús Made (Brewers), Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) and JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) to power hitters Travis Bazzana (Guardians) and Sebastian Walcott (Rangers), there’s a great chance at least a couple of these prospects become household names. MJ
MLB and the MLB Players’ Association using every minute of this season to get together and figure out the next collective bargaining agreement. This is hard to believe, but baseball is actually on the rise for the first time in for ever after a great season, World Series and World Baseball Classic. It has real momentum, and to have an extended work stoppage that cancels or shrinks next season is sports suicide. DL
Young player to watch …
Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo played 31 games last year and averaged just .165, but the Camden Yards front office clearly saw something in him and signed him to an eight-year extension. Spring training is largely meaningless but the 21-year-old finished it with an OPS of 1.115 including several big home runs. Everyone in Baltimore loves Adley Rutschman, but if he has another down year, Basallo will be waiting in the wings. AE
Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony feels like the next face-of-the-league test case: a blue-chip prospect with only 71 games of big-league experience fixed to be the everyday leadoff hitter for an AL East contender. One of the World Baseball Classic’s breakout stars, the 21-year-old has even been hyped as a MVP candidate. BAG
Travis Bazzana. It’s not just that Bazzana, drafted first overall by the Guardians in 2024, is Australian. The kid was balling out this spring. The infield prospect’s power was on display for Team Australia in the WBC and for the Guardians – he hit two homers in a game last weekend. Bazzana will start in Triple A but there’s already buzz around his presumed call-up, which could turn the back-to-back AL Central winner into even more of a juggernaut. MJ
Well, the Pirates have a two-for-one now that pitching phenom Bubba Chandler has earned a spot on the rotation. The onetime two-way player who gave up the dream to focus on pitching will be Pittsburgh’s fifth hurler after Buccos brass wisely decided to start the 23-year-old rather than put him in the bullpen. DL
MVP winners will be …
It’s hard to look beyond Ohtani in the National League, for reasons outlined above. In the AL it’s trickier – Cal Raleigh deserved it last year, but Aaron Judge plays in a major market, is relentlessly consistent, and has shown he’s not a one-off. AE
It’s Ohtani in the NL and the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez in the AL. The 25-year-old Rodríguez, just entering his prime, has the supporting cast in place to turn his electric tools into a season too overwhelming for voters to overlook. BAG
Ohtani (NL) and Bobby Witt Jr (AL). Make that four in a row for Ohtani. The AL race is a tad more fun, and I’ll cast a vote for Witt to double down on his all-around dominant 2025 and regain the batting title he won in 2024. MJ
Let’s be honest: the only way Ohtani and Judge don’t win the MVP awards is if they get hurt. DL
AL East winners …
The Yankees. Toronto were one the league’s luckiest teams last year and rode that fortune to within one out of winning it all, but are likely to fall back a bit. It’s the strongest division in baseball again, and any of the five teams could win it, but there is always an inevitable feeling about the Yankees. AE
Blue Jays. It’s the most volatile division in baseball, but Toronto’s recent October experience and offensive ceiling give them the narrowest edge. Health is the swing factor, yet if even a portion of the rotation stabilizes, their lineup can outslug anyone in a division where margins are razor-thin. BAG
Red Sox. There are safer picks. The Yankees have a superhero hitter and mostly unchanged roster that was successful in 2025. The Blue Jays were inches away from a World Series victory. It will be hard for Toronto to duplicate that effort, though, especially with Bo Bichette’s departure. But I’m smitten with Boston’s potential give their young talent, how well Anthony hit in the WBC, and adding Ranger Suárez to a rotation already featuring Garrett Crochet. MJ
If Gerrit Cole comes back and is healthy and effective, the Yankees will have a superb pitching staff, but I still like the Blue Jays to repeat as AL East winners. Yes, they lost Bichette, but they did sign Japanese third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to help fill their power gap, and the pitching staff is still rock solid. DL
AL Central winners …
The Royals. Tarik Skubal will depart the Tigers at some point, leaving them significantly weaker. The Guardians are arguably past their peak, which makes it time for the Royals’ decade of rebuilding to finally pay off. AE
Tigers. This is less about dominance than comparative stability. Detroit’s pitching foundation, bolstered by the Framber Valdez addition, gives them a higher floor than rivals with more obvious flaws. In a division defined by uncertainty, the Tigers are the safest pick. BAG
Tigers. Detroit were already the favorite in baseball’s weakest division. Then they signed Valdez. The Royals are intriguing by virtue of Witt’s presence. But none of the teams in the division did much this offseason to bolster their chances. MJ
Oh, the middling Central, where you never know who to pick because, well, who knows? That’s why I’m picking the Royals, with their young talented roster about to be infused with one of the best catching prospects in the sport, Carter Jensen. DL
AL West winners …
The Mariners have such a fun, likable team and it still feels as if they’re on an upswing. All the projections put them well ahead of their division rivals. And even though it would feel extremely Mariners-y for them to miss the playoffs regardless, they are just too well-rounded to fail completely. AE
Mariners. The consensus favorite on merit, Seattle’s elite pitching and improved offense make them the most complete team in the AL. Raleigh may not belt 60 homers again, but paired with a fully unleashed Rodríguez and a deeper, more balanced lineup, Seattle won’t need a historic outlier to score enough runs. BAG
The Astros are on a clear downward trajectory. The Rangers’ big acquisition of MacKenzie Gore could easily be a bust. The A’s may hit a billion home runs this season, but it won’t be enough to compensate for a weak pitching staff. That leaves the juggernaut Mariners. MJ
We know who it won’t be – the Angels, whose owner Arte Moreno doesn’t believe winning is a top priority for the team’s fans. That’s a hot take! They do actually enjoy winning in Seattle, where the Mariners fell just a game short of reaching their first World Series. Their three-headed pitching monster of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo, mixed with Raleigh and company should have enough to hold off Houston for a second consecutive season. DL
NL East winners …
It’s been a strange offseason for the Mets, but they’re clearly trying to get over their disappointing 2025 quickly by focusing on the immediate future, with short and short-ish contracts for newcomers Bichette, Luis Robert Jr and Freddy Peralta. All have proved their quality and if they gel, they could dominate the division. AE
Phillies. How many more times can Rob Thomson and Co run it back with this core? The answer may be one. But the lineup can still rake and the rotation is deep even before Zack Wheeler’s anticipated return in late April. The free-spending Mets will push them, but Philadelphia’s October-tested identity gives them the edge over 162 games (even if their final grades have left something to be desired in recent years). BAG
This shapes up to be a tight one. The Mets and Phillies are clear contenders, but the Phillies are old, and the Mets’ collapse is too recent to have faith. Enter the Braves and Ronald Acuña Jr, who returns to earlier career form. Atlanta also didn’t lose anyone significant and enter the season with a stacked, healthy roster. MJ
Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski said Bryce Harper’s 2025 season was “not elite”, and despite that being a correct assessment, it still hurt the first baseman’s feelings. That’s water under the bridge according to the pair, but I don’t buy it. Wheeler is recovering from injury, Suárez is now in Boston, and suddenly the Phils seem stale. So they’re no match for a revitalized Mets roster filled with multiple defensive gamers playing out of position. Yes, they’re the Mets, and yes, the team is a bit weird, and yes, it’s a make-or-break season for team president David Stearns, but the worn-down Phils will yield to the team in Queens as things turn around for the Amazins’. DL
NL Central winners …
The Pirates have been awful for a decade, but this may be the year that ends. Paul Skenes is the most exciting pitcher in the league, and Griffin is MLB’s top prospect. The Pirates weren’t quite ready last year and didn’t meet expectations, but the young stars and a weak division could mean Pittsburgh’s window is opening. AE
It’s a coin-flip division, but Chicago’s balance – enough pitching, enough lineup upside, fewer glaring weaknesses – makes them the safest bet. Milwaukee’s development machine keeps them close, yet the Cubs’ incremental improvements across the roster give them the slight advantage in a division no one has put their stamp on. BAG
It’s hard not to be smitten with the Cubs give their monster offseason additions, Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera. They finally have to depth the overcome the Brewers. Look for the Pirates to make a run after adding several powerful bats. MJ
It’s the Milwaukee miracle: nine seasons, seven playoff appearances, just one finish below second place. For a tiny market, you can’t do much better than that, and if it weren’t for those pesky Dodgers, the Brewers might have even made it to their second World Series. That said, they traded Peralta and Caleb Durbin, so they’re going to rely on their younger up-and-comers to bridge the gap, hold off the Cubs and win their fourth straight division title. DL
NL West winners …
The Dodgers, obviously. But to make it a bit more interesting, I’ll predict they win more than 105 games but fewer than 110. AE
This isn’t really a race so much as a formality. The question isn’t whether they Dodgers win the division, but how hard they’ll gun it during the regular season. With unmatched depth and star power, they’re playing a different game than everyone else. BAG
Let me think. Oh yeah, the Dodgers. The only time in the past 13 years they haven’t won the NL West, they still cranked out 106 wins. They are the ultimate destination for free agents too, this year snagging Kyle Tucker, the best overall free agent, and the best available relief pitcher, Edwin Díaz. MJ
I picked the Rockies last year and was let down. I’m not picking them again this year, but am wondering, will they win 60 games? Not necessarily, but it is possible. What does this have to do with the Dodgers? Nothing. Will LA win the West? Yes. Who will finish second? San Diego, despite looking weaker in 2026. DL
AL wildcards …
Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros. AE
Yankees, Red Sox, Royals. BAG
Blue Jays, Royals, Yankees. MJ
Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers. DL
NL wildcards …
Cubs, Braves, Padres. AE
Mets, Braves, Brewers. BAG
Brewers, Pirates, Mets. MJ
Cubs, Phillies, Padres. DL
ALCS
Yankees over Orioles. AE
Mariners over Blue Jays. BAG
Mariners over Yankees. MJ
Mariners over Red Sox. DL
NLCS
Dodgers over Mets. AE
Dodgers over Phillies. BAG
Dodgers over Cubs. MJ
Mets over Dodgers. DL
Your World Series winners will be …
Dodgers over Yankees. The Dodgers are the best team in the league for boring reasons: they have the biggest payroll by far, and the best player in history. The depth of their roster is ridiculous – an injury to any other team’s ace could derail an entire season, but the Dodgers would barely notice. If they’re stuttering in July, they’ll just overpay at the trade deadline for whoever’s having a good year. The Yankees are probably best placed to try to stop them, but it’s hard to imagine any other outcome than a third consecutive title. AE
Mariners over Dodgers. All $ign$ point to three-peat in Chavez Ravine: unmatched rotation depth, a lineup with no soft spots and Ohtani elevating the whole operation’s confidence. It should be a cakewalk for an LA team who can beat you in so many different ways, but baseball is funny sometimes. Seattle have a deep rotation of their own that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, while Andrés Muñoz anchors a bullpen built for tight postseason games. Once they finally shed the dubious distinction of being the last active major-league club to have never appeared in a World Series, look for the Mariners to take it one further in unforgettable fashion. BAG
Dodgers over Mariners. Back in Tiger Woods’s prime, every major would lead with the question, Tiger or the field? Only a fool would bet the field. That’s the current Dodgers who, barring disaster or lots of weirdness, will three-peat. They plugged two minor holes this offseason, nabbing Tucker to fortify their outfield defense and signed star closer Díaz. The Dodgers have no weakness. Even if Ohtani’s batting is hurt by an increased load on the mound, he’s still the best player in baseball by a mile. The Mariners, so close to making this World Series happen last year, will snag a win or two thanks to an excellent rotation and closer. Jack of all trades Brendan Donovan is a nice boost and prospect Colt Emerson could add some pop, but Seattle just don’t match up toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. MJ
Mets over Mariners. Just imagine the confetti flying out of the windows on a crisp October afternoon. Hot pretzels fly off the carts. Four million souls line Broadway as the floats make their way down towards City Hall. The Mets beat Seattle in seven with a walk-off home run – I’m not sure who will hit it, that hasn’t come to me yet. When it does, I’ll let you know. What I do know is that Stearns is building meticulously, and though he had to make hard decisions, and did have a disastrous 2025, the team have a different quality. With a few deadline additions, they’re championship calibre. DL
