'Mercedes deals end Verstappen speculation - for now'

Mercedes Formula 1 boss Toto Wolff said in the statement that announced George Russell and Kimi Antonelli would be staying with the team in 2026 that "confirming our driver line-up was always just a matter of when, not if".

Yet for some time this season there very much was doubt about who would be driving for the former champions next season.

The spectre of Max Verstappen has hung heavily over both Mercedes drivers for a fair portion of this season - and Russell more so than Antonelli.

Wolff said at the Australian Grand Prix at the start of the season that a move for Verstappen was "not on any radar".

But it was a statement that reflected Wolff's acceptance that the prospects of attracting Verstappen were relatively distant, and was aimed at deflecting disruptive questions.

It did not change the fact that Wolff was interested in Verstappen, and everybody in F1 knew it.

Wolff tried to get the Dutchman last year, before eventually admitting defeat. And they had talks again this season.

It was Russell who explicitly spelled out what was happening, at the Austrian Grand Prix at the end of June.

"It's only normal that conversations with the likes of Verstappen are ongoing," Russell said. "But from my side, if I'm performing as I'm doing, what have I got to be concerned about? There are two seats in every Formula 1 team."

That was a reference to Russell's emphatic victory in the previous race in Canada, and to the fact that the Briton was already by that point not only having arguably his best season in F1, but comfortably outperforming his highly touted rookie team-mate.

Finally, at the Hungarian Grand Prix at the end of July, Verstappen put the story to bed by saying it was "time basically to stop all the rumours".

That same weekend, Russell let slip something of the level of discomfort the saga had produced in him.

Russell, who is managed by Mercedes as well as employed by them, knew before flying to Hungary that prospects of a deal with Verstappen were over, so he was prepared.

Discussing the prospect of a new contract for himself, he said: "Whenever we come to an agreement, we will get it done, but it has to work for both of us.

"Something we need to think about. What do they want and what do I want?

"We have been in a bit of a unique situation for the last few months. I don't have huge power in this agreement. And maybe interests were not aligned for the last six months. But it's my job to perform and reduce that risk.

"I still trust Toto and the team will continue to support me, but for Kimi and me the last six months have not been the most assuring and that is conflicting."

All of this might seem harsh on Russell to some. This is a driver who not only beat Lewis Hamilton in two of the three seasons they spent as team-mates from 2022-2024, but who was also this season answering any remaining doubts Mercedes might have had about whether he was ready to step up as team leader following the seven-time champion's departure.

Job security is not a luxury many F1 drivers enjoy, even those, like Russell, who can count themselves among the very best on the grid.

Russell would be close to the top of anyone's list of best-performing F1 drivers this season, indeed for the last several seasons. But there is a pecking order in F1, and Verstappen is at the top.

Had Verstappen not been a possibility, a new contract with Russell would have been a no-brainer for Mercedes. But he was, so it wasn't.

Russell did not know that it would be him to make way if Wolff had succeeded in landing the four-time world champion, but he had a good idea that would probably be the case.

On paper, the logical person to move aside had Verstappen switched to Mercedes would have been Antonelli.

He is a rookie, his first season has had plenty of downs as well as a few ups, and Russell has been performing comfortably better than him.

But the idea of Russell and Verstappen being team-mates hardly seems realistic. The two are not exactly best mates. They get on well enough if they end up in the same news conference after a qualifying session or race, even share the odd joke, but there is a mutual antipathy that was laid bare in their public row towards the end of last season.

With Verstappen out of the picture at Mercedes for the time being, Russell said he wanted to take some time to think about how he wanted the relationship to work in the future.

Considering neither party had a better option, and both were insistent that a deal would get done, the subsequent talks have taken some time.

One of Russell's considerations was the new rules that are being introduced next year for both cars and engines.

Mercedes are widely believed within F1 to be ahead when it comes to the performance of the new power-units, which will have a much greater proportion of their performance coming from the electrical part of the engine, as well as run on sustainable fuels.

But what if they are not? Mercedes' statement made no mention of the length of the drivers' contracts, beyond saying only that they would race for the team "into 2026".

Russell's new deal is said to be "multi-year". But that could just as easily mean one fixed year plus options for another one or two as it could two fixed years plus an option for another one.

It would be a surprise if Russell had not negotiated some degree of flexibility in the event that Mercedes are not competitive next year.

Flexibility works both ways, of course, and the chances of Wolff giving up on his desire to have Verstappen at Mercedes in the future are not great.

A lot will depend on the competitive picture next season.

The change is too great for any team to go into 2026 with any level of confidence.

After four championships in a row, Verstappen has not enjoyed Red Bull's slip from competitiveness since the middle of 2024.

He fought a great rearguard battle to retain the title last season despite winning only twice in the final 14 races of the season.

But he enjoyed it not one bit when that level of competitiveness continued into this year and his prospects of a fifth title effectively evaporated after just a handful of races, even if they still remain faintly alive as the sport heads into the final quarter of the season.

Contract to 2028 or not, Verstappen could easily be tempted by a move again if Red Bull, who have set up their own engine company to produce their new power-unit for the 2026 rules, cannot win next season.

And Russell knows the rules of the game.

Wolff said earlier this year: "When it comes to the contract situation, our sport is pressure, constant pressure. Whether you're in the car, outside the car, you just need to cope with that. And George knows that, like any other driver knows it.

"I feel that when you're being put in a comfort zone, sometimes that is actually more detrimental to performance than having a certain pressure point in the system."