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In an era when human performance and sports science continue to advance at a remarkable pace, there are very few football records that remain truly untouchable. But Chelsea’s 2004-05 Premier League campaign remains one of the great exceptions. José Mourinho’s side conceded only 15 goals on their way to winning the title, a record that has stood unchallenged for two decades.
No team has come close since. Chelsea themselves conceded 22 times the following season and, along with Manchester United in 2007-08 and Liverpool in 2018-19, came closest to the magical 15 number. But even then, those three teams were still seven goals shy.
To put Chelsea’s phenomenal record into perspective, Wolves and West Ham have already let in 16 goals this season – one more than Mourinho’s side did in 38 games.
But Arsenal, who logged yet another clean sheet at the weekend away to Fulham, are on track to beat Chelsea’s famous record. Their latest shutout means they have conceded only three times in eight league games this season – a rate of 0.38 goals per game. If they maintain that pace, they will be on course to concede 14.4 goals across the full 38-match season. If they can keep that down to 14, it would, of course, break the record.
Mikel Arteta has built an extraordinary defensive unit and the early numbers underline just how dominant they have been. On a per-game basis, Arsenal lead all teams in Europe’s top five leagues for goals conceded and expected goals conceded. They rank second in Europe for both total shots and shots on target faced, while the quality of chances they allow – measured by xG per shot – is also the second lowest of any team.
Looking at where Arsenal are conceding their shots from not only shows us how few chances they are giving up from a sheer volume standpoint, but also that they have been exceptional at defending their own six-yard box. Much of that stems from the commanding presence of the centre-backs Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba, who have been formidable defensive presences at the heart of Arsenal’s back four, with goalkeeper David Raya more than playing his part.
Arteta has been able to field a very familiar defensive unit in front of Raya, which has no doubt helped contribute to their obdurate displays. Gabriel and Saliba have started six of Arsenal’s eight league games together, providing a robust platform. When Saliba has been unavailable, 21-year-old Cristhian Mosquera has slotted in impressively. At full-back, Riccardo Calafiori has started every game and Jurriën Timber seven of eight. Both bring tremendous physicality and excel in one-on-one situations.
With only three goals conceded after eight games, how does Arsenal’s start stack up historically? Seven teams in Premier League history have conceded two or fewer goals in their opening eight games. Chelsea’s 2004-05 side, the gold standard, kept seven clean sheets in that span, and conceded just once.
But as history shows, maintaining this level of defensive solidity over an entire season is far from straightforward, nor does a good start guarantee success come the end of the campaign. Of those seven teams, only three – Chelsea (2004-05 and 2005-06) and Manchester United (2007-08) – went on to win the title. Leicester City in 2000-01 ended up 13th.
Arsenal know that lesson all too well. In 1998-99, they conceded only 17 goals all season, but went on to finish second. That total is still the fewest goals conceded by a team that didn’t win the title, with their defensive excellence undermined by a lack of goals at the other end of the pitch.
This time, things look different. Arsenal scored just 59 goals in 1998-99, the fourth-most that season, and 21 fewer than eventual champions Manchester United. This season, they have scored 15 in eight games, which puts them on course for a solid, if not spectacular, 71.
But with scoring rates down across the league this season, that shouldn’t be too concerning, particularly as their underlying attacking metrics look fine; their overall xG of 14.1 is the fourth-highest in the league, with Crystal Palace (17.4 xG) very much within touching distance.
This has been achieved without their attack fully clicking. Martin Ødegaard, Noni Madueke and Kai Havertz have missed significant spells, and they all remain out. Viktor Gyökeres hasn’t yet found top gear and Bukayo Saka has also had time on the sidelines.
If and when that attacking rhythm arrives, and if the defence continues at this remarkable level, Arsenal will be extremely hard to stop. Breaking Chelsea’s 15-goal record may still be a tall order but, right now, Arteta’s side are giving it a serious go. In doing so, they may just be building a title-winning platform.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
