Trump to give primetime address on Iran war as questions swirl over his next move

Across the world on Wednesday night, millions of people will tune in to watch Donald Trump deliver a primetime update on the war in Iran. Many will hope for some insight on how the war ends and what might come after.

The Trump administration has, so far, given little clue as to what prompted the hastily-arranged remarks, or whether they will mark the beginning of the end of the conflict or a potentially bloody escalation.

This ambiguity is, at least partly, by design. Trump often changes course or leaves his thinking a mystery to all but a small inner circle of supporters, which he has acknowledged leaves friend and foe alike wondering about his next move.

The president also knows that the address comes at a critical time in his presidency and amid mounting domestic pressure to find a way out of the conflict.

Poll after poll has shown that Americans have little appetite for a protracted conflict in Iran, particularly if it involves the prospect of US soldiers on Iranian soil.

A Reuters poll released this week, for example, found that two-third of Americans believe the US should work to swiftly wrap up its involvement in the war, even if the administration's stated military objections are not fully accomplished.

Closer to home, many Americans are increasingly wary of higher prices at the petrol pump, which this week crossed the average of $4 a gallon for the first time in years.

For a president who, pre-war, often pointed to lower petrol prices as a mark of success, this trend represents a challenge.

Imran Bayoumi, a geostrategy expert with the Atlantic Council in Washington DC and former policy adviser to the defence department, told the BBC that the "deep domestic unpopularity" of the war, along with the economic fall-out, "both pose a problem ahead of midterm elections" if the war were to drag on.

The US president will also likely present his view on how the conflict - or at least US involvement in it - will come to a close.

This has shifted repeatedly, from initial calls for an "unconditional" Iranian surrender to a potential negotiated agreement. Just yesterday, he abruptly shifted course, saying that the war could end in "two to three" weeks even without any deal.

This morning, he again seemed to shift, posting on Truth Social that Iran's "much less radicalised" president had asked the US for a ceasefire, but that the US would not consider it until the Strait of Hormuz is open.

Until then, Trump promised, the US will be "blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, back to the Stone Ages".

According to Bayoumi, what constitutes victory for Trump is "loosely defined", which provides the president with some flexibility.

"Not having clearly defined goals going into the conflict allows Trump to declare victory at any time," he said. "[He] has mentioned that he's halted the nuclear threat from Iran, but it's not clear he actually has."

While on a tactical level the US-Israeli operation has been successful in severely degrading Iran's military, Trump's assertion that the war is winding down soon leaves a very narrow window for more complex military options, such as seizing control of Iran's highly-enriched uranium or opening the Strait.

On the latter point, we are likely to hear the president dismiss the Nato alliance as one that he believes has proven itself unwilling to help advance US interests.

What he says tonight will be carefully scrutinised by US allies and adversaries, some of whom will wonder whether it constitutes a ruse.

In Tehran, the country's remaining leadership will remember that Trump had publicly endorsed negotiations he said were ongoing and positive nearly until the moment US bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer.