Champions League: previews and predictions for the quarter-finals

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Sporting v Arsenal, Tuesday

Arsenal arrive in Lisbon having seen their quadruple dreams unravel after back-to-back defeats to Manchester City in the League Cup final and Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals. Those missed opportunities, though disappointing, should focus the players’ minds on a Double that is very much attainable.

Arsenal won all eight matches in the league phase and showed little sign of faltering in the last 16, where they delivered a 3-1 aggregate win over Bayer Leverkusen. They tread familiar ground as they make their third consecutive quarter-final appearance in the Champions League.

Eleven Arsenal players returned early from the recent international break and Gabriel Magalhães became the latest in a growing number of players reportedly injured when he hobbled off with a knee injury at Southampton. The Brazilian defender joins Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapié, Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino as likely absentees for this fixture. The good news is that Declan Rice, Leandro Trossard and Martin Ødegaard may return, bringing some much-needed creativity.

Sporting have to contend with the lingering memory of a 5-1 defeat when these sides met last season, a result made all the more painful by the departure of Viktor Gyökeres, who scored 97 goals and provided 28 assists in 102 appearances for the club before moving to London. His replacement, the 28-year-old Colombian Luis Suárez, has filled his boots admirably, scoring 34 goals in all competitions this season – including five in the Champions League.

Sporting are underdogs in the tie but the Estádio José Alvalade has been a fortress this season. They have lost only once at home in the league this season and that was in August. Their home record in the Champions League is even better: five games, five wins and 16 goals scored.

The manager, Rui Borges, must contend with several absentees. Fotis Ioannidis, Geovany Quenda, Nuno Santos, Luis Guilherme and Iván Fresneda are likely to miss out through injury or illness, and the captain, Morten Hjulmand, is suspended. Prediction: Arsenal to progress after a draw in the first leg.

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich, Tuesday

Bayern Munich visit the Spanish capital with wind in their sails: they have lost only twice in 43 matches this season, are on an unbeaten run of 13 games, and have won nine of their 10 games in the Champions League. Their 10-2 demolition of Atalanta in the last 16 served as a timely reminder of their attacking firepower.

They rested a few important players in their 3-2 win at Freiberg at the weekend and, with the Bundesliga title all but secured and a place in the DFB-Pokal semi-finals booked, their attention is fixed on the task ahead at the Bernabéu. Yet, for all of their domestic dominance, Bayern have failed to beat Real in their last nine attempts. The good news is that, even though Harry Kane missed England’s defeat to Japan last week, he trained with the squad on Monday and has travelled to Madrid.

Real Madrid will relish the prospect of hosting Bayern, not least because they have gone on to lift the trophy the past four times they have eliminated the German side from the competition. Their recent domestic form does give reason to temper expectations, though; their 2-1 defeat to Real Mallorca on Saturday allowed Barcelona to move seven points clear at the top of La Liga. If anything, that setback will only sharpen their focus with the Champions League.

Real lost three matches in the league phase, forcing them to overcome Benfica in the playoffs, but they are a different force in the knockouts – as shown by their 5-1 aggregate win against Manchester City in the last 16. They knocked Bayern out in the semi-finals in 2023-24, 2017-18 and 2013-14, as well as in the quarter-finals in 2016-17, so have history on their side.

Thibaut Courtois is still missing after picking up an injury against Manchester City last month, so Madrid will rely on Andriy Lunin. Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Dani Ceballos may also miss out but Kylian Mbappé – the top scorer in the competition this season with 13 goals – is fit. Prediction: Bayern to progress after a draw in the first leg.

Harry Kane has scored 48 goals for Bayern Munich this season.
Harry Kane has scored 48 goals for Bayern Munich this season. Photograph: Markus Gilliar/GES Sportfoto/Getty Images

Barcelona v Atlético Madrid, Wednesday

Atlético Madrid do not have to wait long for a shot at redemption. They were beaten 2-1 by Barcelona at the weekend, Robert Lewandowski scoring the winner in the 87th minute after Atléti had been reduced to 10 men in the first half. This will be the fifth meeting between these sides this season. Barcelona won both games in the league but Atlético’s impressive victory in the Copa Del Rey semi-finals serves as a reminder of the damage they can inflict going forward.

Atléti have rarely failed to entertain in the Champions League this season. Their 12 games have produced 55 goals (4.6 per game). Their 7-5 aggregate win against Tottenham in the last-16 displayed both their attacking prowess and a fragility that is uncharacteristic for a Diego Simeone side. They have conceded 24 goals – two per game – in the competition. Atlético have lost their past three matches in all competitions but a look at history provides some encouragement: these teams have met twice in the Champions League – in the quarter-finals in 2013-14 and 2015-16 – and Atlético won both ties.

Simeone rested several players against Barcelona at the weekend. Dávid Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri, Alexander Sørloth, Julián Álvarez and Ademola Lookman were left out of the starting lineup, a clear signal of where his priorities lie. Jan Oblak has returned to training and should start in goal but José María Giménez, Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso are unlikely to feature.

Barcelona are in great form: they are unbeaten in nine matches, have a seven-point lead at the top of La Liga, and beat Newcastle 7-2 in the last round of the Champions League. They have scored 19 goals in their past four home games in the Champions League and boast a 6-1 aggregate score against Atlético at home this season.

Hansi Flick has several injury concerns, however. Raphinha suffered a hamstring injury in Brazil’s defeat to France last week, ruling him out of both legs, and Frenkie de Jong is still recovering from a similar issue. Marc Bernal and Andreas Christensen remain on the sidelines but Ronald Araújo is expected to be available. Prediction: Barça to win the first leg and the tie.

Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool, Wednesday

This tie could not have come at a worse time for Liverpool. They were on the wrong end of a 4-0 thrashing against Manchester City in the FA Cup quarter-finals on Saturday, their 15th defeat of the season and their fourth in their past five away games. They beat PSG 1-0 at the Parc des Princes last spring, but a lot has changed in 12 months.

On a more encouraging note, Mohamed Salah, Jeremie Frimpong and Federico Chiesa are available, and the £125m signing Alexander Isak might make his first appearance in the squad since breaking his leg against Tottenham in December.

PSG have a habit of beating English sides in the Champions League. They knocked Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal out of the competition last season, and they swept Chelsea aside last month, winning 8-2 on aggregate. Bradley Barcola picked up an injury in that tie but may return, and Vitinha, João Neves and Nuno Mendes are likely to start having come off the bench in the 3-1 win against Toulouse at the weekend. Prediction: PSG to win the first leg and the tie.

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